If you're shipping ocean into the US East Coast — Newark, Norfolk, Baltimore, Savannah, Charleston — and you have inventory landing between July and September 2026, this is the planning document we're handing out to clients right now.如果你走海运到美东 —— 纽瓦克、诺福克、巴尔的摩、萨凡纳、查尔斯顿 —— 且 2026 年 7 月到 9 月期间有货到港，这是我们目前发给客户的规划文件。
The short version: ILA contract negotiations are still unsettled at the time of writing, and history says peak-season disruption is the most likely outcome. Plan now, ship now, route now.简单说：本文写作时 ILA 工会合同谈判仍未落地，历史经验告诉我们旺季干扰是最可能的结果。现在就规划、就发货、就改路由。
1. What changed since the last cycle1. 自上一轮以来发生了什么
In 2024, ILA-port operators reached an 11th-hour deal that averted an extended strike. In 2026, three things make a repeat of that "narrow miss" less likely:2024 年，工会和港口运营商在最后时刻达成协议，避免了长期罢工。2026 年有三件事让"再次擦边过"的概率下降：
- Automation negotiations are now central, not peripheral. Both sides have hard positions.自动化条款已经从边缘变成核心议题。双方立场都很硬。
- A change of administration in January reset some federal mediation playbooks.1 月份联邦政府换届，一些联邦调解机制需要重新建立。
- ILA's executive board has signaled willingness to use shorter, rolling work stoppages rather than a single multi-week strike — harder to predict, harder to insure against.ILA 执行委员会暗示倾向用"轮换式短期停工"而非一次性长期罢工 —— 更难预测、也更难保险。
2. Who is most at risk2. 谁的风险最大
In our client book, the four profiles below face the most exposure:我们客户群里，下列四类风险敞口最大：
| Profile类型 | Why exposed为什么风险高 | Backup plan备选方案 |
|---|---|---|
| A. Brands with single East Coast WHA. 只有一个美东仓的品牌 | No west-coast fallback没有美西兜底 | Open Ontario buffer开通美西 Ontario 缓冲仓 |
| B. FDA-flagged SKUs entering at NY/NJB. FDA 类目走纽约 / 新泽西 | Exam delay compounds strike delay查验延误叠加罢工延误 | Reroute to SAV (FDA hub)改港 SAV（FDA 枢纽） |
| C. Q4 stockup volumeC. Q4 备货品牌 | No room to absorb 2-week slip无法吸收 2 周延误 | Pre-position by mid-July7 月中旬前提前到位 |
| D. Fresh / cold-chainD. 生鲜 / 冷链 | Power + storage premium at congested ports拥堵港口冷藏插电费暴涨 | Air on critical SKUs关键 SKU 转空运 |
3. The rerouting playbook (in priority order)3. 改路由预案（按优先级）
Step 1 — Shift critical SKUs to ZSE / LAX (West Coast)第一步 —— 关键 SKU 切美西 LAX / 长滩
If your goods can reach the consumer from a West Coast warehouse, route them there. Our Ontario node is geared for surge intake. Transit penalty: 3–5 days; predictability gain: massive.如果你的货可以从美西仓配送到客户，那就改去美西。我们 Ontario 仓为高峰收货做了准备。延误代价：3–5 天；可预测性收益：巨大。
Step 2 — Use SAV for FDA-regulated cargo第二步 —— FDA 类目改走 SAV
Savannah is non-ILA in part and has historically continued operating during East Coast disruptions. Our SAV warehouse is FDA-purpose-built; if your cargo is supplements, cosmetics, or pet food, this is the preferred lane.萨凡纳部分港区不受 ILA 影响，历史上在美东扰动期间仍持续运营。我们的 SAV 仓为 FDA 类目而建 —— 如果你的货是补充剂 / 化妆品 / 宠物食品，这是首选航线。
Step 3 — Air freight on launch / limited SKUs第三步 —— 上新 / 紧缺 SKU 走空运
Reserve charter slots now, not in August. PVG → ORD or HKG → JFK gives you 6–7 day door-to-FBA even at peak. Our weekly slots in July are already 60% booked by repeat clients.现在就预订包板舱位，别等 8 月。浦东→芝加哥、香港→纽约空运 6–7 天到 FBA，旺季也保持。我们 7 月每周包板已被老客户预订 60%。
Step 4 — Bonded storage at origin as a holding pattern第四步 —— 出口前保税仓暂存（缓冲方案）
If congestion looks worst between weeks N and N+3, bond inventory at NGB or HPH for 2–3 weeks rather than racing it into a clogged US port. We coordinate with origin warehouses for this.如果某几周拥堵预计最严重，把货在宁波或海防保税仓存 2–3 周，而不是硬挤美国拥堵港。我们与起运地仓库协调。
4. What we recommend, by month4. 按月份的建议
| Month月份 | Action建议动作 |
|---|---|
| May5 月 | Identify SKUs in scope. Lock charter slots for Jul–Sep.明确受影响 SKU。锁定 7–9 月空运包板舱位。 |
| June6 月 | Reroute high-risk profiles to West Coast or SAV. Open Ontario buffer if not already.高风险类型改港至美西或 SAV。如未开 Ontario 仓现在开。 |
| Early July7 月初 | Ship the bulk of Q4 inventory by mid-July to avoid August/September exposure.Q4 大批量备货在 7 月中旬前发出，避开 8–9 月窗口。 |
| August8 月 | Day-by-day status calls with us; bond at origin if East Coast worsens.逐日与我们沟通状态；美东恶化则起运地保税暂存。 |
| September9 月 | Use air for any launch or low-stock SKU.上新或低库存 SKU 全部走空运。 |
We won't talk you into airing every box. Air is for SKUs where missed revenue exceeds air premium — not "all your inventory, just in case." For most clients, the right answer is a hybrid: ocean to West Coast + selective air on launch / low-stock SKUs.我们不会让你把所有货都改空运。空运是为"机会成本大于空运溢价的 SKU"准备的，不是"反正全部空运保险一点"。大多数客户的最优解是组合：海运改美西 + 上新 / 低库存 SKU 选择性空运。
5. Open questions (and where we are honest about uncertainty)5. 仍然不确定的问题（我们诚实对待）
We don't know whether there will actually be a strike. We don't know whether West Coast ports will be ready to absorb a 30%+ surge. We don't know how long any disruption lasts. We're not in the business of pretending otherwise.我们不知道是否真的会罢工。不知道美西港口能否吸收 30%+ 的转移量。不知道任何扰动会持续多久。我们不假装能预知。
What we do know: the cost of having a plan is low, the cost of not having one in late August is very high. Send us your top SKUs by end of May and we'll come back with a written contingency plan within five business days.我们能确定的：有预案的成本很低，8 月底才开始想的话代价非常高。5 月底前发来你的 Top SKU 列表，5 个工作日内我们出书面应急预案。
